BJP vs Congress

An article in Foreign Affairs by Sumit Ganguly discusses the upcoming Indian election. It argues that

The piece begins “The vote will pit the forces of progressivism, which celebrate cultural and social pluralism and promote equity and good governance but appears singularly incapable of policy implementation, against the forces of cultural and religious nationalism, which promote rapid economic growth and political order but show little regard for social justice, religious and ethnic minorities, or the rule of law. The outcome of the battle could very well reshape the world’s largest democracy. It is tempting to assume that the two competing visions are neatly encapsulated by the race’s main contenders, the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). But that would be facile. Congress’ election platform certainly suggests that it remains committed to progressivism. But even a cursory examination of its record in office over the past term suggests that it is not.”

He argues that the BJP falls into the category of “rapid economic growth and political order” but interestingly he writes “has not always maintained political order. Some of the worst communal violence, after all, has taken place under its watch. Indeed, despite the BJP’s critique of Congress’ abysmal performance, it has been unable to offer any viable alternative. Although reliable and valid opinion polls are scant, it should not come as a surprise when neither party obtains a clear-cut mandate.

The Indian public has been greatly disappointed by Congress’ performance as the leading party within the United Progressive Alliance regime, which has ruled India since 2004. During its first term in office (2004–9), the UPA presided over substantial economic growth, successfully concluded a major agreement on civilian nuclear power with the United States, and passed legislation designed to promote greater government accountability. All the while, it pursued generally progressive social policies. However, in its second term, the UPA seemed to lose its way”.

He mentions the BJP candidate for PM, “The BJP’s chosen candidate for the position of prime minister, Narendra Modi, has a disturbing past. It was during his tenure as the chief minister of Gujarat that a pogrom against the state’s Muslims took place. Admittedly, the Supreme Court of India has formally exonerated him of all charges. However, he remains a deeply divisive figure. And given his party’s record of hostility toward secularism, it is not difficult to speculate how a government under his leadership might treat ethnic and religious minorities. Even his much-vaunted record of promoting economic growth in Gujarat is not free of blemishes. Although he was successful in attracting investment and promoting industrial growth, his administration did little to promote economic equality or implement existing environmental safeguards”.

He adds that “Indian voters are now faced with a conundrum. On the one hand, they can vote for Congress and the UPA because of their commitments, however flawed, to secularism and social justice. On the other, they may be tempted to vote for the BJP because of the UPA’s failure to promote growth and employment and maintain public order. Either way, they understand that they will not likely get the policies for which they bargained. Instead, they can be assured that they are in for a period of political instability with a fractious coalition regime that is unable to forge a viable working consensus. And that is why levels of participation in the upcoming elections will be crucial. If a substantial segment of the electorate simply stays home, the outcome of the election, already uncertain, could become even less predictable”.

Indeed this is the problem faced by many Western voters with fewer and fewer people seeing the relevance of politics and a worrying preference for manageralism. This had led to greater and greater apthy which in turn as led to a shrinking turnout and a corrisponding lack of legitimacy. The main reason for this is the lack of ideological differentation between the parties.

He ends the piece, “With politics floundering at the national level and flourishing at the local level, it is possible that the elections will result in a disparate coalition of the BJP and one or more regional parties. Such an outcome could well return India to the conditions of the 1980s, when a fractious and unwieldy coalition regime imperiled economic growth, governance, and political order. Given all the variables, it is exceedingly difficult to tell how such a government would actually govern — or attack the myriad challenges that besiege the country. Such a coalition would not be able to tackle the mounting problems of governability, sluggish economic growth, and a drifting foreign policy. The hopes that many observers had for a well governed, booming India ready to take its place in the global order now seem increasingly off base”.