In a sign that Putin could have decided on a definite course of action with an article reporting that Putin has 15,000 troops on the border in Ukraine.
It opens “Malaysia Airlines’ 298 passengers died over the skies of eastern Ukraine, so did the last trace of hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin would back down from his support of eastern Ukraine’s separatist rebels or agree to a negotiated settlement to the seven-month-long conflict. Since the deadly incident, it is no longer in doubt whether or not the future of eastern Ukraine — or Novorossiya (New Russia), as pan-Slavic nationalists call it — will be decided by force. The only question remaining is how deadly the fight will be. At the moment, the government in Kiev is ramping up its fight to reclaim Ukraine’s restive eastern regions. At the same time, thousands of Russian troops are amassed along Ukraine’s eastern border, and not just the elite Airborne or Spetsnaz troops that took over Crimea in February, but also units designed to fight conventional wars and armies, like Ukraine’s. The result could be explosive”.
It adds “Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has shown he is willing to use every available resource to retake the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk from the separatists. But does he have the force and commitment necessary to do so? The best estimates place Ukraine’s military strength at around 35,000 ground personnel, although only about 10,000 to 12,000 are able and ready to conduct offensive combat operations at any given time. So far, Kiev has committed six mechanised brigades, a tank brigade, and various special-forces units (such as the Interior Ministry’s “Snow Leopard” brigade) to retaking the east. That’s in addition to the one airborne and three airmobile brigades that have carried out much of the fighting and borne many of the casualties, such as on June 14, when separatists shot down an Ilyushin-76 transport plane, killing 40 paratroopers of the 25th Airborne Brigade and nine crew members”.
The author goes on to mention “Simon Saradzhyan, a Russia expert at Harvard’s Belfer Center, notes, if Ukraine continues to suffer troop casualties at its current rate, it would ‘surpass 1,560 per year. That would be more than what the Russian army acknowledged losing in the deadliest year of the second Chechen war.’ In view of the increasing casualties on the horizon, Ukraine’s parliament has just approved a call-up of a further 50,000 reservists and men under the age of 50, just 45 days after its last mobilisation. But just how long Ukraine’s cobbled-together military will be able to sustain increasing casualties is questionable at best — especially if they suddenly find themselves up against more qualified Russian soldiers”.
He gets to the nub of the issue when he states “During the July 22 debate in the Ukrainian parliament on calling up reserves, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Parubiy, said that Moscow was once again building up its reserves on the border with Ukraine. Parubiy claimed that the Russian force consisted of up to 41,000 troops, 150 tanks, and 400 armored vehicles. Washington and NATO have also backed up that assertion,although estimates on numbers differ: The Pentagon and NATO military commander U.S. Gen. Philip Breedlove put the estimates of Russian troops at the border at 12,000 to 15,000. This may be the best estimate, as the United States has no incentive to downplay the level of troops at the border and American satellite imagery is likely to get the most accurate picture. Even if the number of Russian troops at the border is far lower than the 41,000 discussed by Ukrainian security officials, there is still good reason to worry. ‘These battalion groups consist of infantry, armour and artillery, and also have organic air defence capabilities,’ the Pentagon notes“.
He goes onto to discuss the consequences of this, “Russia does not have the force ready at the border for a full-scale invasion and occupation of eastern Ukraine. But it doesn’t need to. Putin does not want to annex the large and economically depressed region, despite the increasingly vocal calls from Russia’s nationalist right and the Russian commanders in charge of the insurgency. Even if he did, from a strategic point of view, he has missed his best opportunity. In May and June, Russia had its best units poised and positioned on Ukraine’s borders. Since then, however, the rotation of conscripted soldiers has put fresh, less-than-battle-ready soldiers into the field. But what the Kremlin really wants in Ukraine is to fosteranarchy and instability, putting pressure on the new regime in Kiev and the West to acquiesce to Russia’s dominance in the east and to stop what Putin and many in his circle believe are EU and NATO incursions into Russia’s backyard”.
The writer speculates that this means “that the forces currently amassed on the border are capable of launching a quick incursion into Ukraine to halt the progress of Kiev’s forces and allow the rebels to reassert some control, along with effectively signaling Moscow’s dominance over events in the region. Whether this is a quick strike or a longer-term incursion, these new brigades have the firepower and logistics support to effectively deal a blow to Ukrainian forces”.
These tactics should not be tolerated. The need for a united front is needed now more than ever. Putin cannot win in a war and his bullying tactics are just that, tactics with the aim of intimidation. It may be too late for crushing sanctions but Putin should be warned about the consequences of his actions. He only understands force and force is what will push him back into Russia.
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