Another Democratic president

A Democrat will win the White House next year by the narrowest of margins, according to a well-known election forecaster. Moody’s Analytics is predicting that the Democratic presidential nominee will capture 270 electoral votes in 2016, edging out the Republican nominee’s total of 268. The model from Moody’s, a group that analyzes economic trends, has a perfect track record, accurately predicting every presidential election since 1980; it nailed the number of electoral votes in President Obama’s 2012 victory. The economics-based election model — which relies on presidential election results since the 1980 Ronald Reagan-Jimmy Carter contest — aims to predict voting decisions based on each state’s economic and political situation. Moody’s will update its prediction each month in the run-up to November 2016. Overall, the most important economic variable in the model is income growth in the two years leading up to the election. Wage growth has been tepid this year, though it is expected to pick up as the job market approaches full employment”.

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