Electoral status quo?

After yet another Romney gaffe upsets Americans, and many others, the political ramifications continue. An article mentions that, “Senate Republican leaders on Wednesday didn’t answer questions in front of TV cameras about Mitt Romney’s controversial ’47 percent’ remarks. After their weekly caucus lunch, the GOP lawmakers faced the Capitol Hill media for the first time since the GOP presidential nominee’s comments were leaked earlier this week. In a departure from standard operating procedure, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) made brief remarks about inaction in the upper chamber and then departed without taking questions from the press”. A different piece mentions that Romney’s gaffes could cost the Republicans the Senate.

A recent poll suggests that “President Obama leads with 49 percent support over Mitt Romney’s 44 percent — a 6-percentage-point swing from the same poll in August. President Obama has overtaken Mitt Romney in the 12 swing states that will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election, according to a Purple Insights poll”. He goes on to write “The president is buoyed in the poll by his support among independents. Obama leads 48 to 43 percent, his first lead with the group since February”, he adds “Obama’s favorability isn’t great, but he’s above water, at 49 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable. Purple Insights broke out polling in six of the individual swing states, where the race remains close — Obama leads by 4 in Ohio, 3 in Colorado and Virginia, and 2 in North Carolina, while Romney leads by 1 in Florida. But perhaps most startling was the poll’s findings in Arizona, where Romney has a narrow 48 to 45 percent lead. Most analysts consider Arizona to be safely in Romney’s corner, and neither candidate has spent any significant time campaigning in the state”. In a  nod to the future he writes “Arizona has a growing Latino population, and many believe the shifting demographics will one day play in favor of Democrats. A Reason-Rupe poll released on Friday showed Obama with a 71 to 18 percent advantage over Romney among Hispanics”. Yet, it would be naive to assume that in a decade a state the size of Arizona will go over to the Democrats, but if it shifted gradually, it would be a significant victory for the Dems. Only the GOP has itself to blame for their anti-immigrant stance.

The piece goes on to note a separate poll by Gallup that “enthusiasm among all U.S. voters jumped from 43 to 55 percent, with Democrats outpacing Republicans by 9 percentage points nationwide. Democrats gained 19 points in enthusiasm, from 49 to 68 percent, compared to a 10-point gain for Republicans, from 52 to 62 percent. While the national polls remain tight, Obama seems to be sustaining his slight lead in the swing states across the board”.

In a different but related piece, it notes Obama has out fundraised Romney “Obama ended the month of August with $88.8 million, compared to just $50.4 million for the Romney campaign. The Romney figure includes $15 million in loans that must be repaid, meaning that the candidate actually entered the month with access to around $35.4 million — less than 40 percent of Obama’s total. Obama’s advantage comes thanks to a stronger fundraising month in August that saw the president bring in $84.7 million, outpacing Romney’s $66.6 million haul. In turn, Obama was able to spend more: the president had receipts totaling $83.7 million, versus around $66.4 million for the Romney campaign”. This will be vital for President Obama in the final weeks of the campaign, yet the GOP still have a slight advantage in this field.

Lastly, Tony Blair’s director of communications, Alistair Campbell has advice for Romney, two pieces argue that the House will remain in GOP hands while the Senate will similarly remain under the control of the Democrats.